IMF Raises Global Economic Outlook Amid Trade War Caution
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 3.2%, citing resilience in the face of trade tensions. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva credited nations' restraint in retaliating against U.S. tariffs as a key stabilizing factor.
Effective U.S. tariff rates have fallen to 9-10% after trade deals with major partners, nearly half initial estimates. This unexpected moderation has provided breathing room for global commerce. The IMF warns, however, that renewed U.S.-China trade hostilities could quickly reverse these gains.
Georgieva's remarks at the Bretton Woods Committee event highlighted the delicate balance maintaining current trade frameworks. 'The world chose rules over retaliation,' she observed, noting this prevented a destructive cycle of protectionist measures.
